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芒格访谈摘录:亚马逊、中美关系及房地产泡沫

发表于:2019-02-27 00:18:35

  You spent a lot of time today talking abouthow people who think that they can beat the market averages are probablyfooling themselves, how much tougher it's gotten to be avalue investor, or evenjust an investor in general. And I was just wondering, do you think the goldenera of investing is over?

  今天你花了很多时间谈论那些自认为能够超越市场平均投资收益率的投资者很可能是在自欺欺人。您认为需要花费很多时间和精力,才能够成为一名广义上的投资人,甚至是一位“价值投资者”。我想知道,你认为投资的黄金时代结束了吗?

  芒格:

  Well, not forever. because I think, itisn't like the last recession or the last big opportunity that the world isever going to get is past. There'll be opportunities in the future. There aretimes where they're easier, and there are times when it-- which are harder.

  不,黄金时代永远不会结束。因为我认为,这不是最后的经济衰退或世界将要获得的最后一次大好机会。将来总会有机会的。有时候世道会容易些,有时候世道会稍微艰难些。

  The opportunities that we all remember camefrom a demoralized period when about 90% of the natural stock buyers got verydiscouraged with stocks. That's what created the opportunity for these fabulousrecords that my generation had. And that was a rare opportunity that came to arare group of people of whom I was one. And Warren was another.

  我们都记得的一次机会来自一个士气低落的时期,那时候大约90%的自然股票买家对股票非常失望。 这就是我这一代人所经历的那次创造了惊人记录的机会。 这就是包括我在内的一小部分人所偶然获得的这次罕见的机会。沃伦也是其中一个。

  2、关于中美贸易

  主持人:

  You-- you've been a huge- booster ofChina's economies and some of the Chinese companies, and the entrepreneurs whorun them. We've gotten, obviously, into a little sticker situation with Chinawith the trade talks that are going back and forth. And maybe a differentrelationship than we've been dealing with for the last 20 or 30 years. What doyou think about China right now and its future?

  你是中国经济和一些中国公司以及经营它们的企业家的巨大助推器。 显然,我们已经与中国形成了一个类似于小小的贴纸状态。贸易谈判正在进行, 我们和中国之后也许会形成和过去20或30年间所经历过的截然不同的关系。您如何看待中国现在及未来?

  芒格:

  Well, I think it's natural to have sometension over-- the truth of the matter is that Ricardo, when he invented thelaw of comparative advantage, did not predict that some day the law ofcomparative advantage would make-- would grasp-- would greatly accelerate thegrowth of some poor nation which had a particularly able populace, like China.That free trade would enable them to come up rapidly and take a lot of poweraway from companies that had been on top and like being on top. He just hadn'tthink about it. Once we realized it could happen, I don't think it's crazy tothink there may be some limit to the amount of destruction we want to occur inour aerospace industry or something.

  我认为有一些紧张局势发生是很自然的。事情的真相是,李嘉图(力场君注:大卫·李嘉图,英国古典政治经济学的主要代表之一,也是英国古典政治经济学的完成者,主要经济学代表作是1817年完成的《政治经济学及赋税原理》,书中阐述了他的税收理论)在发明比较优势法时,并没有预测到某种程度上比较优势的法则会使 - 会抓住 - 会大大加速一些贫穷国家的经济增长,特别是拥有特别有能力的民众的国家,比如中国。 这种自由贸易将使他们迅速发展,并从那些一直处于领先地位及将要处于领先地位的公司那里获得大量利润(利益、能量)。 他只是没考虑到这个问题。 如果我们曾经意识到它发生的可能性的话,我认为我们会对将要发生在我们的航空航天工业中的破坏量做一些预估,并提前设置好一些限制。

  So I don't regard free trade as such a purething that we could never, under any circumstances, intervene. And I think thatthe advantages to United States and China, to getting along, are so great onboth sides, that I anticipate that they will reach some tolerable adjustment.

  因此,我不认为自由贸易是一种纯粹的东西,在任何情况下都不会被干预。 而且我认为美国和中国相处的优势在双方都是如此之大,我预计他们会达成一些在双方忍耐范围内的调整。

  主持人:

  Do you think the president's right to raisethe questions about whether free trade is really trade and open trade and fairto both sides?

  你认为总统提出的自由贸易是真正的贸易和开放贸易以及对双方都公平的主张是否正确?

  芒格:

  I don't consider it wrong to have somelimits on free trade that matter to the United States. I don't want many, and Idon't want them to be huge. But some limits on the operation of free trade arequite acceptable.

  我认为对其它国家和美国的自由贸易设置一些限制没有错,但我不想要很多,我不希望这些限制变得庞大。但是一些对自由贸易运作的限制是可以接受的。

  主持人:

  Have you changed your perspective onChinese investments, to this point, based on this trade talks, or based on thenew relationship we may have going forward?

  在此基础上,您是否根据此次贸易谈判,或根据我们可能进行的新关系,改变了您对中国投资的看法?

  芒格:

  I basically believe in a lot of trade.Because I want two companies-- two countries with a lot of hydrogen bombs to betrading happily with one another instead of posturing the way we are withRussia. So I vastly prefer our relations with China to our relations withRussia. And I think China thinks likewise. And I anticipate that we will getalong. It will be crazy on both sides if United States and China don't-- doesany one country, both sides should want to keep friendly, it's the other.